Former U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Henry Cisneros said Central Texas is on track for explosive population growth, warning community leaders that careful planning will determine whether the region thrives or struggles under its future weight.
Cisneros, followed by a panel of experts, addressed the subject of development along the corridor between Austin and San Antonio during the Austin – San Antonio Growth Summit.
Cisneros, speaking on regional development, noted that the corridor between Austin and San Antonio is home to 5.3 million people today. By 2050, that number is projected to reach 8.3 million, and by 2060, nearly 9.6 million.
“That’s the equivalent of adding a city the size of Chicago between north of Austin and south of San Antonio,” Cisneros said. “It’s not a question of whether growth will occur. The question is whether it will bring congestion, pollution, and poor planning, or whether it will enhance quality of life and economic opportunity for the entire region.”
The rapid expansion is fueled by booming urban centers and fast-growing suburban counties. San Antonio has reached 1.5 million residents, while Austin is nearing 1 million and is poised to enter the top 10 largest U.S. cities. Hays and Comal counties rank among the fastest-growing counties in the nation, with New Braunfels and San Marcos seeing population surges of more than 50 percent in the past decade.
Cisneros said growth brings opportunities as well as challenges. Advanced manufacturing hubs such as Tesla in Austin, Samsung’s $45 billion investment, and Toyota’s San Antonio plant highlight the region’s economic strength. At the same time, infrastructure, housing affordability, water supply, and transportation require urgent attention.
“It’s impossible to depend on one roadway, Interstate 35, as the principal means of moving people and goods,” Cisneros said. He called for expanded use of State Highway 130, U.S. 281, regional rail, and new bus routes to connect Austin, San Antonio, and the communities in between.
Cisneros also urged cooperation across city, county, and state lines. He recommended the creation of a Central Texas legislative caucus to address shared issues, as well as regional projects such as a 100-mile network of green spaces and springs linking San Marcos, Comal County, and San Antonio.
Cautioning against complacency, Cisneros pointed to examples of once-thriving economic hubs, from Detroit to parts of the Northeast, that failed to adapt.
“We have a rare opportunity,” he said. “This region can be a national example of how to grow wisely, create wealth, and bring people together, if we plan for it.”
Colin Pope, editor of the Austin Business Journal, said Central Texas is “coming together organically” as Austin and San Antonio expand north and south, transforming the Interstate 35 corridor into one of the fastest-growing regions in the country.
“When we sit, we see what many of us know, Austin and San Antonio are heavier on the growth on their north sides,” Pope said. “If Hays County had grown as fast as Williamson County did in recent decades, we might already feel like Dallas-Fort Worth in this area.”
Pope said that the growth between Austin and San Antonio is undeniable. Improvements to I-35 and continued development along State Highway 130, he said, will only accelerate that trend.
“The economy has slowed a bit this year, especially real estate, which pretty much drives everything else,” Pope said. “But it will pick up again, rest assured.”
Offering a city-by-city snapshot, Pope pointed to Buda as an example of rapid change. The suburb has grown by nearly 600 percent since 2000, with a median home value of $473,000. Buda has become a hub for food manufacturing and consumer packaged goods, with companies such as US Foods, Siete, Night Hawk Frozen Foods, and ATX Packaging anchoring its industrial base.
Kyle has experienced even faster growth, climbing nearly 1,000 percent to about 66,000 residents since 2000. With home prices more affordable than its northern neighbors, Kyle has become a magnet for large-scale housing and mixed-use projects, though Pope noted that 73 percent of its workforce still commutes out of the city each day.
San Marcos, already home to Texas State University, has doubled in population since 2000 and is “on the precipice of exploding,” Pope said. The city has attracted major employers such as Amazon and CFAN while pursuing opportunities in data centers, entertainment, retail, and advanced manufacturing.
Further south, New Braunfels has become the largest city between Austin and San Antonio, with more than 116,000 residents, a 200 percent increase since 2000. Pope said the city illustrates the affordability gap now facing the corridor: while median household income has more than doubled to $88,000, home prices have climbed more than 300 percent in the same period, from $89,000 to $356,000.
Emerging communities such as Lockhart, Uhland, and Mustang Ridge are also beginning to see activity, including large-scale food manufacturing, data centers, and even proposed surf park development.
Despite challenges with housing affordability and transportation, Pope said the economic outlook remains strong.
Leaders from across the Austin-San Antonio corridor said the region’s explosive growth will require unprecedented collaboration, major infrastructure investment, and a focus on placemaking to maintain its appeal to businesses and residents.
The discussion came during a panel moderated by San Antonio Business Journal Editor Ed Arnold, featuring Mike Kamerlander, president and CEO of the Hays Caldwell Economic Development Partnership; Jonathan Packer, president and CEO of the Greater New Braunfels Chamber of Commerce; Ashley Gossen, chief economic development officer with Greater:SATX; and Stacy Schmitt, senior vice president of communications and external affairs with Opportunity Austin.
Arnold opened the session by noting that Central Texas’ growth is among the fastest in the country. He asked the panel to describe what life and development look like “on the ground” in the corridor between the two metro areas.
Kamerlander said cooperation is stronger than ever, pointing to growth eastward in Caldwell County, affordable land along State Highway 130, and Texas State University’s push toward R1 research status as key drivers.
“If we’re going to get anywhere to a future that makes sense and works, we’re going to have to work together,” Kamerlander said. “Fortunately, in San Marcos, Kyle and our counties, we’ve been able to do that.”
Packer said New Braunfels is no longer simply a satellite city between Austin and San Antonio.
“You have several cities that have their own identity, that happen to find themselves in this hybrid corridor,” he said. “You kind of have the best of both worlds: quality of place, economic opportunity, and influence.”
Both Opportunity Austin and Greater:SATX leaders said their organizations have shifted from city-centered strategies to a broader “mega-region” approach.
“The opportunity is definitely for the entire mega region,” Gossen said. “The collaboration and communication we have today are critical. Ten years ago, I couldn’t imagine us being on stage together. Now I can’t imagine us not.”
Placemaking was another central theme.
Packer cited redevelopment projects in New Braunfels, including the Co-Op Marketplace, the Mainzer project, and the transformation of the historic Dittlinger Mill, as examples of how cities can attract investment while maintaining local character.
Infrastructure remains the most pressing challenge. Panelists cited the need for improved east-west road connections between I-35 and SH 130, long-term water planning, reliable power for industry, and expanded air service at San Marcos Regional Airport.
“Mobility and transportation are the top issues,” Schmitt said. “We’ve laid the groundwork at the state level, but we need to keep pushing.”
Workforce development was another focus, with Texas State’s surging enrollment, now nearing 45,000 students, seen as a major asset for regional employers. New technical training investments, such as an Austin Community College campus in Lockhart and the expansion of Texas State Technical College programs, will further strengthen the pipeline.
Panelists closed by forecasting what they hope the next five years will bring. Packer said he wants to see billions invested in regional transportation. Kamerlander emphasized job creation as a measure of success.
“We’re all working super hard every day,” Kamerlander said. “The ideal outcome is bringing in great community partners and projects that give the people of this corridor the jobs they want, and that grow everybody’s economy.”