Leaders from across Central Texas gathered this week for the Hays Caldwell Economic Development Partnership’s annual Economic Outlook luncheon, where speakers highlighted record population growth, major investment wins and emerging challenges facing one of the fastest-growing regions in the nation.
Mike Kamerlander, president and CEO of the Hays Caldwell Economic Development Partnership, opened the luncheon by highlighting growth trends that continue to place the region among the fastest-growing areas in the country.
“Hays County is the fastest-growing county in the nation among counties with more than 100,000 residents,” Kamerlander said.
Hays County’s population has increased 27% since 2019, while Caldwell County has grown 20% over the same period. Caldwell County was ranked the ninth fastest-growing county in the United States in the most recent annual data, Kamerlander said.
Job growth has accelerated alongside population gains. Caldwell County’s job count has increased 32%, from roughly 10,000 jobs to more than 13,000, while the broader region continues to outpace both state and national averages.
“We sit at the heart of what we’ve dubbed the Texas Innovation Corridor along Interstate 35 and State Highway 130,” Kamerlander said. “While Texas has seen job growth of about 22% over the past decade, our corridor has grown nearly 59%. This isn’t just growth - this is economic transformation.”
Kamerlander said 2025 marked one of the most successful economic development years in the partnership’s history. Among the largest projects, Tract closed in May on 1,515 acres in Caldwell County for a multi-gigawatt data center and technology park capable of supporting more than 2 gigawatts at full build-out.
“To put that in perspective, Austin Energy’s peak usage ever was 3 gigawatts,” Kamerlander said. He added that the project positions the region at the forefront of artificial intelligence and cloud-computing infrastructure while supporting future advanced manufacturing investment.
Other major 2025 achievements included a $120 million U.S. Foods expansion in Buda, supported through a multi-jurisdictional incentive package involving the city, Hays County and the Texas Enterprise Fund. Kamerlander said Buda also recently landed the headquarters of Perseus Defense, strengthening the city’s role in aerospace, defense and advanced manufacturing.
Kyle saw significant downtown investment and is moving forward with a 99-acre mixed-use development featuring housing, retail and water-conservation elements. In Lockhart, food manufacturing and cold-storage projects such as Ziegenfelder and RealCold opened, while incentives helped land Sensei Farms and support local businesses, including Hill Country Foodworks.
San Marcos broke ground on a Buc-ee’s location and secured a third H-E-B store. Dripping Springs resolved litigation tied to the South Regional Water Reclamation Expansion, clearing the way for additional infrastructure capacity. Delta Millworks relocated its headquarters near Wimberley and is under construction, while Mustang Ridge continues to attract new industrial projects, including an auto-parts manufacturer.
Kamerlander said the region’s growth has been supported by strong economic fundamentals. Hays County’s median household income now stands at approximately $85,000. More than 240 supply-chain-related businesses employ over 12,000 people in Hays County, and more than 48,000 workers commute into the region daily. About 38% of residents hold a bachelor’s degree or higher.
“Even as some sectors decline nationally, they’re growing here,” Kamerlander said. “That’s a competitive advantage.”
Looking ahead to 2026, Kamerlander outlined five trends shaping the region’s trajectory: infrastructure maturation, workforce development, technology leadership, sustainable growth and quality-of-life investment.
He noted that Hays County is revising development regulations for the first time since 2010, with an emphasis on water availability and sustainable growth, while road improvement programs are advancing in both counties. Workforce initiatives include expanded partnerships with Texas State University, Austin Community College’s new campus in Lockhart and the Texas State Technical College campus under development in Seguin.
Kamerlander acknowledged headwinds, including slower growth compared with recent years, potential national declines in manufacturing construction and trade uncertainty affecting global supply chains. Rapid growth, he said, continues to strain infrastructure, housing affordability, childcare availability and transportation systems.
“But challenges are just opportunities in work clothes,” Kamerlander said. “Every pressure point represents a business opportunity, an innovation waiting to happen.”
Following Kamerlander’s remarks, Mark Wynne, vice president and associate director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, delivered the luncheon’s keynote address, offering a national economic perspective before a panel discussion focused on regional impacts.
Wynn offered a high-level overview of the Federal Reserve System, noting that it consists of 12 regional reserve banks and the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., with monetary policy set every six to seven weeks by the Federal Open Market Committee. The Fed’s mandate from Congress, he said, is to promote maximum employment and price stability, which the central bank defines as 2% inflation measured by the personal consumption expenditures index.
Inflation has fallen significantly from its post-pandemic peak, Wynne said, but remains above the Fed’s target.
“Since 2021 and 2022, inflation has come down dramatically,” he said. “The critical mission ahead is to close the remaining gap and get back to 2%.”
Wynne said the Fed’s rate hikes helped cool inflation without triggering a major increase in unemployment — a rare outcome historically. Unemployment remains near 4%, which he described as an “incredibly strong labor market,” even with higher interest rates.
He also pointed to a series of “black swan” events that have shaped the economy in recent years, including the COVID-19 pandemic, global conflicts, the introduction of generative artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT, and increased trade and tariff uncertainty.
Policy uncertainty and trade fragmentation, Wynne said, have caused many businesses — particularly those involved in international supply chains — to delay decisions, weighing on global growth. While the global economy is expected to continue growing, he said projections show slower growth in advanced economies compared with emerging markets.
Despite those headwinds, Wynne said the United States is expected to outperform other advanced economies in the near term, supported by consumer spending and productivity gains. He identified artificial intelligence as a potential long-term driver of productivity growth, while cautioning that its effects on jobs and industries remain uncertain.
“New technologies destroy certain jobs, but they also create new ones,” Wynne said, noting that historical fears of permanent job loss from technology have generally not materialized over time.
He concluded by urging local leaders to pay attention to global economic forces, noting that Texas — and the Austin-San Marcos region in particular – is more exposed to international economic shocks than many other parts of the country.
Following Wynne’s remarks, Kamerlander welcomed a three-person panel to the stage.
The panel included Dr. Haiyong Liu, professor and chair of finance and economics at Texas State University; Aaron Farmer of The Retail Coach; and Jason Hundley, founder and CEO of X-Bow Systems and Zero Point Frontiers.
Liu said Central Texas has shown resilience in the labor market following the COVID-19 pandemic, supported by population growth and strong consumer demand.
“Hays County has a pretty amazing population growth rate,” Liu said, adding that logistics, health care, construction and transportation sectors continue to see healthy employment trends.
Farmer said retail spending in the region has outperformed national averages, driven by rapid population growth and strong household incomes. While consumers have become more price-conscious, he said demand remains strong for grocery stores, large-format retailers and fast-casual restaurants.
“Retail site selection has become much more scientific,” Farmer said, noting that real-time consumer data and analytics now play a critical role in attracting new retailers and restaurants.
Hundley focused on aerospace and defense, calling the sector a major driver of high-skilled jobs and supply-chain growth. He said global conflicts have forced a reevaluation of defense manufacturing capacity, creating unprecedented demand for hardware-based production.
“We are looking at one of the largest manufacturing paradigm shifts since World War II,” Hundley said, adding that communities like those in the Innovation Corridor are well-positioned to benefit.
Panelists agreed that policymakers should prepare for continued growth while balancing infrastructure needs, workforce training and competitive incentive strategies.
“What’s happening here isn’t just about economic statistics,” Kamerlander said in closing. “It’s about families finding good-paying jobs, entrepreneurs launching dreams and communities building futures.”